Ethiopians vote Monday in an election widely seen as a foregone conclusion, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party expected to sweep all 547 seats in parliament — extending a pattern of one-party dominance that has defined Ethiopian politics since the fall of the Derg regime in 1991.
In Addis Ababa, there is little sign that a national election is underway. A few people wear T-shirts bearing the wheat symbol of Abiy’s Prosperity Party (PP), but no campaign posters hang on any wall. The party’s single major rally in the capital was held Tuesday morning and was over by 8:00 a.m. — Abiy himself did not appear. Campaign offices for opposition parties in several regions have been shuttered or faced bureaucratic obstacles to opening, according to party officials.
“I don’t think my vote can have a significant impact on politics,” said Tesfalem, a designer in the capital, who said he will not participate. “The voice of the people has never changed anything. The results are decided before the ballot boxes open.”
Online debates between candidates attract only a few hundred views each — a stark contrast to the millions who followed Abiy’s rise to power in 2018 on a wave of public enthusiasm for democratic reform. That euphoria has dimmed considerably. The Tigray war, which lasted from November 2020 to November 2022, killed an estimated half a million people and displaced millions more. A peace agreement to disarm Tigrayan forces has only been partially honoured by both sides, and federal troops and allied militias have since become entangled in new conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions.
The main opposition parties — the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM), the Front for People’s Democracy (F-PED), and the National Movement of Ethiopia (NME) — have jointly accused the National Election Board of allowing the Prosperity Party disproportionate access to state media and blocking opposition campaign events in the Amhara, Oromia, and SNNPR regions. The African Union and the East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development have both confirmed they have been invited to send observers but have not yet deployed teams to the ground.
International monitors will be watching closely. The United States embassy in Addis Ababa issued a statement last week calling for “a transparent and inclusive electoral process” and urging the government to “create conditions for credible political competition.” The European Union has said it will not deploy a full observation mission but will send a small technical team to monitor the vote count. Human Rights Watch has documented what it calls a “climate of fear” surrounding the election, citing the arrest of at least 14 journalists and civil society activists in the run-up to polling day.
Despite the political turbulence, Ethiopia’s macroeconomic picture has improved marginally. The birr has stabilised against the dollar following a $3.4 billion IMF programme agreed in late 2025, and the government points to IMF growth projections of 6.4 percent for 2026 as evidence of economic recovery. However, consumer inflation remains above 20 percent, the country is servicing heavy external debt, and the conflict zones in Amhara and Oromia have disrupted agricultural output in some of Ethiopia’s most productive regions. Food insecurity affects an estimated 21 million people nationwide, according to the World Food Programme.
Abiy’s opponents say the economic gains have come at the cost of political freedom and civic space. “We are not just voting for a government — we are voting for the survival of our democracy,” said Berhanu Nega, a senior figure in the Ethiopian National Movement, speaking from exile. The ENM has refused to field candidates in most constituencies, arguing the election is neither free nor fair, and has instead urged supporters to cast blank ballots as a form of protest.
Voting begins at 6:00 a.m. local time on Monday. The election will be held across 547 constituencies, with more than 45 million registered voters eligible to cast ballots. Preliminary results are expected within 48 hours of polls closing, with official results due within two weeks. If the Prosperity Party wins the two-thirds parliamentary majority required to form a government, Abiy will serve a second five-year term — and could remain in power until 2036 under the current constitutional framework.
Last updated: May 29, 2026 · This is a story