Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran are showing “good signs” — but explicitly warned that a proposed Iranian fee structure for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz would make any final agreement economically unviable for Washington, raising fresh doubts about whether the two sides can bridge a growing list of irreconcilable demands.
Rubio’s cautious optimism, delivered in Brussels following a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, follows a renewed push by Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Syed Asim Munir, who arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for his second mediation visit in as many weeks — an indication that back-channel diplomatic efforts are intensifying even as the public positions of Washington and Tehran remain far apart.
The Nuclear Sticking Point
The core disagreement remains Iran’s uranium enrichment programme. The United States has demanded a full, verifiable cessation of enrichment at levels above five percent — a threshold that Tehran insists is its sovereign right under international law. Iran, for its part, has refused any deal that does not include a formal end to nuclear-related sanctions and recognition of its right to peaceful enrichment on its own soil.
A senior State Department official, speaking on background, told reporters that the current trajectory of talks was “encouraging but fragile,” adding that the June deadline for a framework agreement remained “technically achievable” only if Iran showed “significant, immediate goodwill gestures” in the coming days.
“Any deal that includes a toll gate on the world’s most critical shipping lane is not a deal — it’s a shakedown dressed in diplomatic language.” — Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Pakistan’s Delicate Mediation Role
General Munir’s second visit to Tehran in under a month reflects Islamabad’s effort to position itself as a credible interlocutor between two powers whose conflict has placed Pakistan in an increasingly untenable geopolitical position. Pakistan shares a long, porous border with Iran and relies heavily on trade through the Persian Gulf. Months of military posturing and the disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have cost Pakistan’s economy an estimated $3.4 billion in trade losses, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.
During his two-day visit, Munir held separate meetings with Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and senior officials from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. A readout from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) described the talks as “constructive and wide-ranging,” with both sides agreeing on the need for “regional de-escalation through dialogue.”
However, analysts caution that Pakistan’s leverage with Tehran is limited. “Munir is a useful messenger, but he cannot offer Iran anything it values more than a sanctions relief deal with Washington,” said Dr. Sara Khan, a South Asia security analyst at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. “His usefulness depends entirely on whether the US and Iran are serious about talking — and right now, both sides are still more focused on posturing than compromising.”
The Hormuz Tolls Question
The most recent flashpoint in negotiations is not nuclear at all — it is the transit fees Iran has proposed levying on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil flow daily. Iranian officials have argued that, given the strategic importance of the chokepoint and the presence of US naval forces in the Gulf, Iran is entitled to compensation for the security burden it bears in maintaining freedom of navigation.
US officials have rejected the proposal outright. The Pentagon estimates that Hormuz tolls, if implemented, would add between $4 and $8 per barrel to global oil prices — a cost that would be borne disproportionately by US allies in Asia and Europe, and which would effectively function as an Iranian revenue stream disguised as a regulatory fee.
Global oil markets reacted with their third consecutive day of modest gains on Thursday as traders weighed the possibility of a partial deal against the likelihood of renewed confrontation. Brent crude settled at $84.20 a barrel, up 1.2 percent on the session.
Europe Watchful, Israel Wary
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc remained “ready to support any credible agreement” but called on both parties to engage directly without preconditions. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking alongside Rubio, said Berlin was prepared to offer economic incentives — including limited sanctions relief — to facilitate a final accord, though any such package would require unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states.
Israel, which has not been invited to participate directly in the current round of talks, has watching with barely concealed alarm. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his government’s position Thursday that “no deal is better than a bad deal” and that Israel “reserves the right to act independently” if Iran’s nuclear programme is not fully dismantled. Israeli intelligence officials have reportedly shared satellite imagery with US counterparts showing what they describe as previously undisclosed enrichment activities at the Fordow facility.
Israel’s concerns have added a further complication to the negotiations. US legislators from both parties have warned that any deal perceived as legitimising Iran’s enrichment programme could struggle to secure Senate ratification, particularly if it does not include a so-called “snapback” mechanism allowing for the re-imposition of all sanctions within 30 days of any Iranian violation.
What Happens Next
The next round of direct US-Iran talks is expected to take place in Muscat, Oman, within the next ten days, according to two officials familiar with the planning who spoke on condition of anonymity because the schedule has not been publicly announced. Oman has served as the primary back-channel venue throughout the current negotiations.
For now, both sides appear to be buying time. Washington needs a diplomatic win before the November midterms; Tehran needs sanctions relief to address a currency crisis that has pushed the Iranian rial to record lows against the US dollar. General Munir’s shuttling between capitals buys both parties room to continue talking without the political cost of appearing to blink first.
But the Hormuz tolls question remains a fundamental obstacle — one that no amount of Pakistani mediation may be able to bridge. As one senior European diplomat put it in Brussels on Thursday: “The gap between ‘good signs’ and a signed deal is still very wide. And on Hormuz, the two sides haven’t even begun to move toward each other.”
Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, Livemint, CNBC, Times of Israel, State Bank of Pakistan, ISPR