Trump Signals Iran Deal Close but Warns “No Rush” as Hormuz Reopening Hangs in Balance

WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — A potential breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appeared tantalizingly close on Sunday, only for President Donald Trump to temper expectations hours later, telling his representatives “not to rush into a deal” because “time is on our side.”

The conflicting signals from the White House came as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from New Delhi, acknowledged progress while cautioning that “you can’t do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.” Rubio had previously suggested an announcement could come as early as Sunday.

Two-Step Framework Emerges

According to officials familiar with the negotiations, the emerging framework would involve an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil transits — coupled with a 60-day window for Tehran to settle details of its nuclear program. Iran would commit to disposing of its stockpile of enriched uranium, though neither the timing nor the method has been finalized.

Major issues, including the fate of Iran’s missile arsenal and a full timeline for suspending its nuclear program, would be deferred to future negotiating rounds, according to sources cited by El País and U.S. media outlets.

Tehran’s Internal Dynamics

Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — who succeeded his father, Ali Khamenei, after the U.S. killed him in a strike nearly three months ago — has reportedly approved the broad outlines of the deal. But decision-making within the Islamic Republic remains a slow process, and hardliners continue to resist concessions.

Tasnim News Agency, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that several issues remain unresolved, including the fate of Iran’s frozen assets — a dispute that could still derail the talks entirely.

Political Stakes on All Sides

For Trump, the deal offers a way out of a war conceived as a short operation but one that bogged down, drove up oil prices, and eroded his poll numbers ahead of November’s midterm elections. Republican hawks, including Senator Thom Tillis, have already criticized the emerging framework as insufficient, warning against allowing nuclear material to remain in Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made little effort to hide his discomfort. The deal does not address Israel’s core security concerns and undercuts the justification for the February 28 military operation that started the conflict.

Pakistani negotiators, led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Arab leaders have played a crucial mediating role, fearful that an escalation could drag the broader region into a larger conflagration.

Global Economic Impact

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the conflict’s escalation, choking off a fifth of global oil shipments and sending crude prices surging. Brazilian oil exports to China and India have surged as buyers scramble for alternative supplies. Global shares gained and oil prices fell on Friday after Trump’s initial optimistic remarks, but markets remain jittery as the timeline slips.

El País reported that the rush to reach a deal is also shaped by the U.S. political calendar — Trump has less than six months before midterms that will define the second half of his presidency.