Hegseth Tells Shangri-La Dialogue Taiwan Omission Signals Strategic Shift — Beijing Absent as IISS Warns of Nuclear Risk
Breaking — Asia Pacific Hegseth Tells Shangri-La Dialogue Taiwan Omission Signals Strategic Shift — Beijing Absent as IISS Warns of Nuclear Risk including Taiwan, a notable omission that reverberated across the forum and drew immediate rebuke from Taipei. Meanwhile, a landmark IISS strategic assessment released simultaneously warned that a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan would carry a “real prospect of nuclear escalation” with no established guard rails to prevent it. The twin signals — a public snub of Taiwan by a senior Trump administration official on the same day a major defence think tank issued its starkest nuclear warning yet — landed at the close of a three-day security summit in Singapore that Beijing chose to skip entirely. Hegseth’s Roll Call: Taiwan Left Out Hegseth, speaking at the 23rd Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday (May 30), praised Indo-Pacific partners for increasing defence spending in response to the Trump administration’s call for allies to commit 3.5 percent of gross domestic product to defence. He listed Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam as nations “stepping up.” Taiwan was not among them. Neither was New Zealand. Taiwan’s former defence minister Andrew Yang noted the omission sharply. “The question of the U.S.’s support for Taiwan can only be answered by President Donald Trump,” he told reporters at the forum, according to the Straits Times. Hegseth did not directly answer a question from the floor on arms sales to Taiwan. The omission is significant given that Trump’s own public posture has added to the uncertainty. After a recent Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump told reporters he was unsure whether he would approve what would have been the largest U.S. arms sale to Taiwan — a move that rattled Taipei and its regional partners. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 permits the United States to provide Taiwan with the resources required for effective self-defence, but the Trump administration’s approach has been marked by transactionalism that leaves the island’s security status perpetually ambiguous. IISS: Nuclear Escalation Risk ‘Looms Large’ Hours before Hegseth took the podium, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released its most explicit assessment yet on the nuclear dimensions of a Taiwan conflict. The study, released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue, said both Washington and Beijing would likely target each other’s command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — known in military doctrine as C4ISR — nodes in any major conflict. “There is currently little public evidence to suggest that both militaries understand the necessary guard rails to prevent, or rules of engagement that would restrict, both sides” from striking these critical nodes, the IISS assessment said. It continued: “The prospect of nuclear escalation will thus continue to loom large in a major U.S.-China conflict.” The assessment also warned that the Asia-Pacific region is now at the centre of a new global nuclear arms race, with regional states expanding their arsenals and non-nuclear weapons states pursuing long-range conventional-strike capabilities. A recent Pentagon report estimated China could possess 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. China currently holds an estimated 620 warheads, compared with the United States’ 3,700 and Russia’s 4,400. IISS senior fellow Daniel Salisbury said communication channels between Washington and Beijing remained far weaker than Cold War-era U.S.-Soviet talks. “That culture of discussion is just not there at the moment, so there’s far less to build on in that relationship,” he said. Beijing Skips Forum — Again China’s absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue was the defining visual of the three-day summit. For the second consecutive year, Beijing sent no senior People’s Liberation Army officials to the forum. No Chinese defence minister attended. No PLA delegation occupied the conspicuous gap in the main plenary hall. Delegates at the forum openly asked: “Where is China?” — the headline used by Reuters in its dispatch from Singapore. The contrast with the full-throated American presence was impossible to miss. China’s foreign ministry, in Beijing, reiterated its position that any foreign interference in Taiwan constitutes a red line. China’s ambassador to the United Nations warned earlier this week that arms sales to Taiwan violate international law and China’s sovereignty. Allies Welcome, Questions Linger Despite the tension over Taiwan, Hegseth struck a more conciliatory tone towards China than his prepared remarks suggested, referencing the “constructive strategic stability” framework agreed between Trump and Xi in Beijing two weeks prior. “What we seek — and what the President has constantly articulated — is a genuinely stable equilibrium that works for Americans and our allies, a favourable but durable balance of power in which no state, including China, can impose its hegemony,” Hegseth said. He described America’s approach as “strong, quiet and clear.” Some Asian delegates expressed quiet relief at being named in Hegseth’s list of model allies. One Philippine delegate was overheard remarking to a Japanese counterpart: “We were mentioned.” But U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth, a longtime advocate for robust Indo-Pacific engagement, offered a blunt counterpoint. “The latest national defence strategy drafted ies attended this year’s forum, the largest in the summit’s 23-year history. Key figures at a glance: • Pete Hegseth, U.S. Secretary of War — Saturday keynote, Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore • Andrew Yang, former Taiwan defence minister — criticised Taiwan omission • IISS assessment — released May 30, 2026; authors Daniel Salisbury et al. • 44 countries represented at Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 (May 29–31) Kenji Tanaka is a breaking news correspondent for Media Hook covering the Asia Pacific. He is based in Tokyo.
