The Congressional Budget Office has delivered its formal score for the Senate’s $72 billion FY2026 reconciliation package, estimating the legislation would add $94 billion to the national debt over the next decade when interest costs are factored in — a figure that has intensified Democratic criticism and prompted renewed debate over the bill’s long-term fiscal impact.
The analysis, released Monday, confirms earlier preliminary estimates that the reconciliation measure — covering Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection, and select Homeland Security Department operations — would appropriate $71.7 billion in FY2026 funding with authority to obligate those funds through 2029. The CBO confirmed the core breakdown: $32.5 billion reported by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, and $39.2 billion reported by the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Where the Money Goes
The CBO breakdown details the allocation of the $71.7 billion across agencies:
- Judiciary Committee portion ($39.2 billion): ICE receives the largest single agency allocation at $30.7 billion; CBP receives $3.5 billion; the Homeland Security Department receives $2.5 billion; the Justice Department receives $1.5 billion; and the Secret Service receives $1 billion for the East Wing Modernization Project.
- HSGAC portion ($32.5 billion): CBP’s Border Security Operations receives $22.3 billion; ICE receives $7.5 billion; and the Homeland Security Department receives $2.5 billion.
Of the total, at least $7.5 billion is discretionary funding placed at the discretion of Cabinet secretaries — $5 billion for the Homeland Security Secretary, $1.5 billion for the Attorney General, and $1 billion for the Secret Service East Wing project — amounts the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget identified as above-and-beyond ordinary appropriations.
The Deficit Math
The headline $94 billion figure assumes the full $71.7 billion is obligated and spent without corresponding reductions in ordinary appropriations. Under that scenario, the CRFB estimates the bill would add approximately $9.3 billion to deficits through 2036 even if future appropriations are reduced by the full amount of reconciliation obligations over 3.5 years.
“The actual net cost is likely to be somewhere in between and will depend on future appropriation actions,” the CRFB wrote in its analysis, noting that the lack of statutory guardrails on obligation timing creates “the need or demand for future additional appropriations.”
Byrd Rule Fallout
The CBO score arrives as Senate Majority Leader John Thune continues to navigate post-ruling fallout from the May 16 parliamentarian decision striking the $1 billion White House ballroom and Secret Service security provision. That provision — which would have funded a proposed $400 million White House ballroom alongside security upgrades — was ruled out of order under the Byrd rule, which bars reconciliation provisions that increase deficits outside the reconciliation window.
The committee-level markup remains scheduled, with the Wednesday business meeting set to formalize recommendations to the Senate Budget Committee ahead of floor consideration of the broader H.R. 1 package.
Democratic Response
Senate Minority Whip Richard Durbin of Illinois called the CBO score “confirmation that this reconciliation package is a deficit-financed border spending spree with no offset, no guardrails, and no honest accounting.” Senate Budget Committee ranking member Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island is expected to release a formal counter-analysis this week, citing CRFB’s $94 billion deficit estimate as evidence that the bill violates the chamber’s own PAYGO norms.
The reconciliation package is currently scheduled for a Senate floor vote after the Memorial Day recess, pending completion of committee markups and resolution of remaining Byrd rule disputes.
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