At least 50 people were killed in clashes between armed guerrilla groups in Colombia’s Guaviare department on Wednesday, May 27 — just 72 hours before the nation goes to the polls for a presidential election that will determine the fate of the country’s fractured peace process.
Colombia’s presidential election is scheduled for Saturday, May 31. With no candidate polling above 50 percent, a runoff on June 21 remains a real possibility — meaning the winner may be decided not just by voters, but by which faction of Colombia’s sprawling armed opposition ultimately controls the most territory when the ballots are counted.
The Three-Way Race
The election has crystallized into a three-way contest:
Iván Cepeda of the left-wing Historic Pact offers continuity with President Gustavo Petro’s policies. Petro, constitutionally barred from seeking a second term, has seen his signature “Total Peace” policy collapse spectacularly — negotiations with the ELN broke down after the January 2025 Catatumbo massacre, and armed group ranks have swelled to approximately 25,000 fighters, an 85 percent surge.
Abelardo de la Espriella of the far-right Defenders of the Homeland runs as an outsider in the vein of Argentina’s Javier Milei, tapping into voter frustration with mainstream politicians of all stripes.
Paloma Valencia of the center-right Democratic Centre party counts former President Álvaro Uribe — Petro’s chief antagonist — as her political patron. She represents the establishment right’s best hope of reclaiming the presidency.
Two centrist former mayors — Sergio Fajardo of Medellín and Claudia López of Bogotá — round out a crowded field. Over 41 million voters are registered. A candidate needs more than 50 percent to win outright on May 31.
Security Collapse Overshadows Voting
The Guaviare massacre is not an isolated event. Drone attacks with explosives rose 138 percent year-on-year between January and August 2025. Civilian casualties from explosive devices jumped 145 percent. Cocaine production potential exceeded 3,000 metric tons in 2024. The electoral map that Colombians draw on May 31 will be drawn over a country where large swaths of territory are effectively governed by armed groups rather than the state.
Key numbers: 50 killed in Guaviare clashes · May 31 election · 3 candidates polling above 10% · 25,000 armed group fighters · 41M registered voters
The ELN, FARC dissidents, and a constellation of smaller criminal organizations are all active in Guaviare, a department that sits at the crossroads of coca cultivation zones and cocaine transit routes leading to Venezuela and Ecuador. The fighting that killed 50 this week reflects not a single feud but a multi-sided contest for territorial control that has outlasted every peace agreement signed in the past decade.
Voters go to the polls Saturday. Whoever wins inherits a country at war with itself.
— Carlos Mendez, Americas Breaking News