G7 Summit Opens in Evian as Three Crises Converge at Once
The 52nd Group of Seven summit opened in Evian-les-Bains, France, on Monday with an extraordinary convergence of three crises pressing simultaneously on the leaders of the world’s seven largest advanced economies: a potential United States-Iran peace agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a universal import tariff set to expire on July 24, and a rare-earth supply collapse that European and American analysts have each estimated has caused $1.5 trillion in direct economic losses. The three-front agenda gave the gathering stakes with few recent parallels.
Speaking from the Oval Office on Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached what he described as a “great settlement” with Iran, subject to the finalization of documents, and said the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened as soon as the agreement was signed. Trump said Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff would represent the United States at any signing ceremony, which he suggested could take place in Europe over the weekend. Iranian state media confirmed that a memorandum of understanding was under discussion as a first phase, before broader nuclear negotiations would begin within 30 to 60 days.
The conflict itself began February 28, when the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by disrupting transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing about one-fifth of global petroleum consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The Atlantic Council described the resulting supply disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market. A fragile ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but shipping volumes through the strait have not recovered to pre-conflict levels.
Trump’s Thursday announcement came after he canceled a scheduled strike on Iran earlier that day, citing progress in talks brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership. A signing ceremony, if it proceeds, would likely be held in Geneva, according to South China Morning Post reporting. The administration is pursuing a 14-point framework that would require Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days in exchange for a suspension of hostilities and, according to Iranian state media, a reconstruction commitment and sanctions relief. Trump disputed Iranian accounts of the deal’s terms, saying leaked documents circulating in Iranian media had “nothing to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.”
The Rare-Earth Emergency
For technology manufacturers, semiconductor suppliers, and the defense industry, the most structurally significant agenda item at Evian is not the Iran deal but the rare-earth crisis that has been building for years and accelerated sharply this year. The Atlantic Council, analyzing the stakes ahead of the summit, documented that Europe sources all of its heavy rare earth elements, 85 percent of its light rare earth elements, and 98 percent of its rare-earth magnets from China. When Beijing tightened export licensing for those magnets, shipments fell by three-quarters, automakers reduced production, and the Atlantic Council estimated that Europe and the United States each faced approximately $1.5 trillion in direct economic losses.
The International Energy Agency has tracked this dependency for years. Its analysis found that for 19 of the 20 most strategically important minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70 percent. For sintered permanent magnets, the components used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, industrial motors, data centers, and defense systems, China’s share has risen to 94 percent. The Council on Foreign Relations described this as an overwhelming dependence that leaves US defense, aerospace, automotive, and electronics industries at risk of Chinese coercion.
France is reportedly considering establishing a permanent secretariat to steward the critical-minerals agenda across future G7 presidencies, a move that would mark a structural upgrade from the year-by-year approach that has characterized G7 action on the issue since Canada’s 2025 presidency produced the Critical Minerals Action Plan. According to Reuters reporting, the secretariat could be housed at the International Energy Agency or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, both based in Paris.
Macron’s Opening Toward Beijing
In an unusual diplomatic move, French President Emmanuel Macron chaired a video conference Thursday that he called the Global Convergence for Growth, bringing together G7 finance ministers, IMF representatives, and, in a rare appearance, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing. The Elysee Palace confirmed Zhang participated at the invitation of the French government. Beijing has long condemned the G7 as an illegitimate forum unrepresentative of the current world order and has resisted direct engagement with it. Zhang’s participation was significant precisely because it broke that pattern.
In his remarks, Zhang called for a free and convenient trade environment and said China would continue to share development opportunities with other countries. Global Banking and Finance Review, citing Reuters, described the surge in Chinese exports as a second China shock, analysts’ term for a repeat of the disruption caused by China’s 2000s domination of low-value industries, now playing out in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and advanced manufacturing sectors that Europe considers strategically essential. Macron’s goal was not to resolve the dispute but to demonstrate to Beijing that the G7’s response would involve dialogue rather than unilateral tariffs, or at minimum to complicate any Chinese decision to escalate export restrictions ahead of the summit.
The Tariff Clock
The third crisis on the summit table is a 15 percent universal import tariff that was imposed under Section 122 of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and is legally required to expire on July 24 unless the president certifies an extension. The tariff has been a persistent source of friction between the United States and its European allies, many of whom have retaliated with countermeasures targeting American agricultural and manufacturing exports. A joint EU-US deal announced at the G7 Taormina talks collapsed last month after Italy blocked a joint communique, leaving the tariff regime as the default baseline.
The automotive sector has been particularly exposed. Several European manufacturers have curtailed US-bound production, while American automakers reliant on cross-border parts supply chains have faced input cost pressures. Officials from both sides described the situation as unsustainable beyond the July deadline, though no formal extension mechanism has been agreed. The European Commission has signaled that any renewal would require a new authorization from member states, a process that could take weeks and would come as the summer holiday period slows decision-making in capitals.
What Comes Next
World leaders depart Evian with decisions deferred on tariffs and rare-earths, but the Iran question moving toward a signature. The immediate variable is whether Iran confirms the Geneva terms that US officials have described. If the signing proceeds, Hormuz traffic could begin recovering within weeks, with downward pressure on global oil prices and a relief rally in shipping markets. If terms remain disputed, the ceasefire holds but the economic disruption continues.
On critical minerals, the permanent secretariat proposal faces a formal decision at the next G7 presidency, which rotates annually. Whether the Evian communique commits to a specific institutional home, funding mechanism, or timeline for reducing dependence on Chinese processing will be the measure of whether this summit produced a structural outcome or merely a statement of intent.
