Wall Street kicked off the holiday-shortened week with one of the broadest risk-on sessions of 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 468.77 points, or 0.92 percent, to close at a record 51,671.03, with the 30-stock index also registering a new all-time intraday high during the session. The S&P 500 climbed 1.65 percent to 7,554.29, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.07 percent to 26,683.94 — the tech-heavy benchmark’s best day since March 31. The session was triggered by President Donald Trump’s late-Sunday announcement that the United States and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war, with formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.
Oil Gives Back a Month of Premium in One Day
The clearest evidence that traders believe the deal is real came from crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed down roughly 4.9 percent at $80.75 a barrel, surrendering most of the geopolitical premium built up over the past month. Brent tracked lower, and refining margins for jet fuel and diesel are expected to follow within weeks rather than months. “It seems real this time as both rates and oil have broken through key levels,” said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management. The simultaneous move in equities, crude, and Treasury yields is the signature of a single narrative resetting the tape rather than a rotation within it.
SpaceX Extends Its First Two Days as a Public Company
SpaceX, which surged 19 percent in its Nasdaq debut on Friday, added another 19 percent on Monday as index inclusions began to draw in passive flows. Russell will add the stock to its benchmarks on June 26, MSCI is set to follow roughly ten trading days after the IPO on June 29, and the Nasdaq-100 will include the company after about fifteen trading days under a recent rule change that fast-tracks newly public firms. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, said the trade has a fundamental underpinning but warned that “valuations can always go much higher than you ever imagined, but eventually they do normalize out.” Goldman Sachs, the lead-left underwriter on the offering, climbed roughly 1.5 percent on the back of the deal.
DoorDash Leads the High-Beta Catch-Up Trade
DoorDash jumped more than 11 percent in afternoon trading, on pace for its best day since April 9, 2025. Justin Post, an analyst at Bank of America Securities, reiterated a Buy rating and wrote that the company had “the largest margin overhang in the group” from energy costs and is “best positioned to benefit from ME conflict resolution.” The move illustrates a pattern visible across the consumer and delivery complex: the names with the most direct exposure to fuel costs are leading the relief rally, even when their underlying fundamentals have not changed. Airlines, cruise operators, and other fuel-sensitive names are queued up in the same trade.
Why the Bond Market Believes the Deal
The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields both moved lower in the same session, removing the “oil down because demand is collapsing” read that has undermined previous relief rallies. Barclays told clients on Monday that gold’s recent correction looks more like a reset than a break in the long-term trend, with bullion’s decline best understood as a rotation out of crisis hedges and back into risk assets rather than a collapse in the inflation outlook. The combination of lower crude, lower yields, and a firm dollar suggests the market is pricing in a durable reduction in the war premium without yet pricing in a recession.
What It Means for the Fed This Week
The setup for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week is now a constructive one. If inflation continues to soften into July, the committee can argue that the war premium in goods prices is unwinding, and the case for holding rates steady strengthens. Mulberry noted that crude falling to $80 is “a strong signal, given that this is an FOMC week, that we don’t need to raise rates [and] that the price pressure should alleviate relatively quickly.” For now, the trade has both momentum and a fundamental underpinning, and for the first time in 2026, the tape is speaking in more than one voice.