AUTHOR: James Wright | CATEGORY: Economy | TITLE: Trump Warns Iran: ‘Get Moving or There Won’t Be Anything Left’ — Oil Markets Hold Near $100 as Hormuz Crisis Deepens
Washington — President Donald Trump delivered an unambiguous ultimatum to Tehran on Sunday, warning that unless Iran ceases its destabilizing activities in the Persian Gulf, the United States will act with overwhelming force. “Get moving or there won’t be anything left,” Trump said, signaling that the window for diplomatic resolution is rapidly closing as military options move back to the center of the administration’s Iran policy.
Oil Markets Price In Military Escalation
Brent crude held above $100 per barrel on Monday as traders assessed the renewed risk of a full disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through the waterway daily, and any sustained closure would send shockwaves through energy markets already strained by OPEC+ production discipline and slowing non-OPEC supply growth.
The Trump administration has pursued a dual-track strategy: maximum economic pressure through sanctions, paired with a deliberate military buildup in the Gulf. Administration officials have signaled that the deployment of additional carrier strike groups and long-range bombers to the region is designed to force Iran back to negotiations — but sources close to the White House acknowledge that military action could come within weeks if Tehran continues to enrich uranium and harass commercial shipping.
G7 Warns of Consequences of Hormuz Closure
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations convened an emergency virtual meeting Sunday to discuss the potential economic fallout from a prolonged Hormuz disruption. The G7 warned that any Iranian attempt to close or threaten the strait would trigger “severe and sweeping consequences,” though officials declined to detail specific measures under consideration.
The discussions highlighted deepening transatlantic concern about energy price spikes that could derail fragile inflation progress in both the United States and Europe. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has already projected that global oil stocks will deplete at a record pace through the end of the year, leaving little margin for supply shocks.
UAE Exits OPEC — A Strategic Signal?
The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC — described by Abu Dhabi as “not political” — adds a layer of strategic uncertainty to the oil market equation. The move opens the door for the UAE to increase production independently, potentially cushioning a Hormuz-related supply shock, but also underscores fractures within the Gulf Cooperation Council’s unified energy posture.
Energy analysts note that while the UAE’s departure may be structurally motivated, its timing — coinciding with peak regional tension — raises questions about whether major Gulf producers are positioning themselves for a post-Hormuz order in which American military guarantees replace OPEC+ coordination as the primary stabilizer of oil markets.
Treasury Secretary Bessent: ‘Substantial Disinflation’ Still on Track
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm market nerves, telling CNBC that two additional hot inflation readings are expected before price pressures ease significantly. “Substantial disinflation is coming,” Bessent said, adding that the administration views the oil price spike as a temporary supply shock rather than a demand-driven event that would alter the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 5.25% for three consecutive meetings as it waits for clearer evidence that inflation is on a durable path to its 2% target. Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged the energy price situation adds upside risk to the forecast but has resisted calls to preemptively raise rates, citing the need for confirmed data rather than transitory shocks.
What Comes Next
The next two weeks will be decisive. If Iran complies with international monitoring requirements and reduces naval provocations in the Gulf, the administration has signaled a willingness to ease sanctions pressure as a goodwill gesture. If it does not, current and former officials say military strikes on nuclear infrastructure — for the first time since 2022 — have moved from theoretical to operational planning.
For global markets, the $100 oil floor represents a fault line: above it, consumer purchasing power erodes, central banks face renewed inflation pressure, and the risk of a global growth slowdown deepens. Below it, the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign yields the economic leverage it was designed to produce. The outcome depends entirely on decisions being made in Tehran and Washington — and the narrow window between them is closing fast.
James Wright | Economy Correspondent | Media Hook Think Tank | May 17, 2026
