President Donald Trump touched down in Beijing on May 12, 2026, for a three-day state visit to Chinese President Xi Jinping, carrying with him a war that has now cost the United States $29 billion and a diplomatic gamble that the fragile ceasefire with Iran may be approaching its final chapter.
Trump Brings the Iran War to Beijing
Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One that the Iran conflict would feature in his discussions with Xi, though he was clear that trade — not diplomacy — was the primary purpose of the trip. “We’ll win it one way or the other, peacefully or otherwise,” he said. The comment underscored a broader ambiguity that has characterised the administration’s approach to the West Asia standoff since the ceasefire was first declared.
The visit follows weeks of internal pressure within the administration. Two US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that military planners are actively considering naming a renewed major combat phase “Operation Sledgehammer” — should Trump order a full resumption of kinetic operations. The possible renaming has not been formally approved, the officials noted, and remains under internal discussion.
The $29 Billion Tab
The financial scale of the conflict is becoming impossible to ignore in Washington. The US war against Iran has now cost $29 billion, according to figures cited by multiple news organisations — higher than the $25 billion the Pentagon had previously estimated in testimony to Congress two weeks earlier. The discrepancy has drawn scrutiny from defence budget analysts and members of both parties on the appropriations committees.
At home, American consumers are feeling the pressure. The Energy Department revised its forecast for average petrol prices upward from $3.70 to $3.88 per gallon for 2026, citing disruptions to global oil markets from the conflict and the persistent threat of closure to the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical maritime oil chokepoint.
Pakistan as Mediator — and a Fragile Ceasefire
Trump backed Pakistan as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, describing its role as “absolutely great” in comments to reporters. The endorsement came after Senator Lindsey Graham publicly questioned whether Pakistan could serve as a credible intermediary, prompting Trump to publicly reject that scepticism during his pre-departure briefing.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei offered a blunt characterisation of the US-Israel campaign in comments reported by state media: a fight, he said, between “a proud people” and “professional liars.” The remark underscored the depth of mutual hostility despite the ceasefire’s formal continuation.
Some aides to Trump are reportedly more seriously considering the possibility that combat operations resume. According to multiple reports, the current ceasefire is understood within the administration as holding only “until he says so” — a framing that offers Tehran little confidence in the durability of the pause.
Humanitarian Toll
Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported that two paramedics were killed and a third injured in an Israeli strike targeting emergency workers in southern Lebanon — one of numerous incidents of civilian harm that have accompanied the broader West Asia escalation. The strike occurred even as indirect talks continued in Geneva, illustrating the gap between diplomatic signals and events on the ground.
What Comes Next
Trump’s visit to Beijing is the highest-stakes diplomatic engagement of the Iran conflict so far. Xi has not publicly sided with either Washington or Tehran, and China’s position on the Strait of Hormuz — which it depends upon for a significant share of its energy imports — gives it leverage that neither side can easily dismiss. Whether the Chinese leader chooses to use that leverage as a calming influence or a bargaining chip will define the next phase of the conflict.
For now, the ceasefire holds — barely. The “$29 billion” question is whether Trump’s “one way or the other” leads to a deal in Beijing or the naming of “Operation Sledgehammer.”
